Schedule for CliMathNet Conference

 

See also abstracts for Plenary speakers, abstracts for the Poster session and abstracts for Contributed talks.

Monday 1st July 2013

Time

Monday

12.00

Registration Opens

12.15

Buffet Lunch

13.45

Welcome and Opening remarks

14.00

Plenary: Peter Guttorp (Washington)

The Heat Is On!  - A statistical look at the state of the climate

14.45

Plenary: David Hendry (Oxford)

Econometric modelling and forecasting of non-stationary time series

15.30

Tea/Coffee

16.00

Plenary: Chris Jones (University of  North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Lagrangian data assimilation as a paradigm

16.45

Isabelle Mirouze (Met Office)

The challenges of weakly-coupled data assimilation systems

17.05

Joe Osborne (Exeter)

The response of precipitation to sulphate aerosol forcing in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes

17.25

Charles Camp (California State Polytechnic University)

Characteristics of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition as Revealed by Empirical Mode Decomposition

17.45

Drinks reception and buffet

19.30

End of session

 

Tuesday 2nd July 2013

Time

Tuesday

09.00

Plenary: Valerio Lucarini (Hamburg/Reading)

A general statistical mechanical approach for deriving parametrizations

09.45

Philip Brohan (Met Office)

Dispersing the fog of ignorance

10.05

Marianna Demetriou (UCL)

Combining information from multiple climate simulators to obtain estimates of global surface air temperature change, under a probabilistic Bayesian framework

10.25

Nick Watkins (LSE)

Why wild events are like buses … they’re never along when you expect them …

10.45

Tea/Coffee

11.15

Plenary: Chiara Piccolo (Met Office)

Evaluation of model errors using data assimilation techniques

12.00

Imogen Fletcher (Exeter)

A statistical approach to modelling the occurrence of tropical fires

12.20

David Stainforth (LSE)

The role of initial condition ensembles in quantifying model climate under climate change

12.40

Buffet Lunch

13.45

Plenary: Peter Haynes (Cambridge)

Calculating the forced response of the tropospheric circulation

14.30

Coralia Cartis (Edinburgh)

Efficient optimization algorithms for nonlinear least-squares and inverse problems

14.50

Patrick Sessford (Exeter)

Quantifying sources of variation in multi-model ensembles: A process-based approach

15.10

Alex Megann (NOC)

Structural Uncertainty in Climate Projections – an ocean perspective

15.30

Tea/Coffee

16.00

Plenary: Tim Lenton (Exeter)

Early warning of climate tipping points

16.45

Frank Kwasniok (Exeter)

Predicting critical transitions from time series using non-stationary modelling

17.05

Valerie Livina (NPL)

Tipping points toolbox: anticipating, detecting and forecasting tipping points in climatic time series

17.25

Clare Hobbs (Exeter)

Rate-induced tipping

17.45

Chris Boulton (Exeter)

Early Warning Signals of Simulated Amazon Dieback

18.05

End of session, free evening

 

Wednesday 3rd July 2013

Time

Wednesday

09.00

Plenary: Henk Dijkstra (Utrecht University)

Complex networks: a useful tool in climate research?

09.45

Christopher Ferro (Exeter)

Evaluating decadal hindcasts: why and how?

10.05

Philip Sansom (Exeter)

On using emergent constraints to reduce structural uncertainty in climate change projections

10.25

Sandra Chapman (Warwick)

An observationally-centred method to quantify local climate change as a distribution

10.45

Tea/Coffee

11.15

Plenary: Nigel Wood (Met Office)

 GungHo into the future: developing a dynamical core for exascale machines

12.00

Alasdair Hunter (Exeter)

Quantifying and understanding the collective risk  from mid-latitude windstorms to society

12.20

Coach to Met Office

13.30

Buffet Lunch

14.00

Poster session and tours of the Met Office

17.00

Coach back to Streatham Campus, free evening

 

Thursday 4th July 2013

Time

Thursday

09.00

Plenary: Michael Goldstein (Durham)

Bayesian uncertainty analysis: linking simulators and climate  

09.45

Zaid Chalabi (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

A Decision Analytical Framework to Reduce the Health Impacts of Extreme Weather Events  

10.05

Hugo Winter (Lancaster)

Modelling drought in Southern Africa with Extreme Value Theory

10.25

Kate Brown (Met Office)

Quantifying Extreme Wind Events in a Changing Climate

10.45

Tea/Coffee

11.15

Plenary: Erland Källén (ECMWF)

Reasons for forecast skill improvements at ECMWF

12.00

Plenary: Mat Collins (Exeter)

Constraints on Future Climate Projections

12.45

Buffet Lunch

13.45

Plenary: Lindsay Lee (Leeds)

Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a global aerosol model

14.30

Peter Challenor (Exeter)

Uncertainty in Estimates of Extremes From Numerical Models

14.50

Simon Brown (Met Office)

Climate projections of future extreme events accounting for modelling uncertainties and historical simulation biases.

 15.10

Theo Economou (Exeter)

A simple framework for multi-peril events in European windstorms

15.30

Tea/Coffee

16.00

Policy Discussion Panel

17.00

Sculpture Walk

19.00

Conference Dinner at The Rougemont Hotel (Queen Street , Exeter, EX4 3SP)

 

Friday 5th July 2013

Time

Friday

09.00

Plenary: Peter Dueben (Oxford)

The use of imprecise processing to improve accuracy in weather & climate prediction

09.45

Doug McNeall (Met Office)

The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model

10.05

Stephen Griffiths (Leeds)

Ocean tides and unresolved climate dynamics

10.25

Danny Williamson (Durham)

Towards quantifying structural uncertainties in climate models

10.45

Tea/Coffee

11.15

Plenary: Beatrice Pelloni (Reading)

 A model for large-scale atmospheric flow: the semigeostrophic system

12.00

Panel Discussion

13.00

Buffet Lunch

13.30

End of Conference