Monday 14th July 2014

Time

Monday

12.00

Registration/lunch

13.45

Welcome and Opening remarks

14.00

Plenary: Ted Shepherd (Reading)

Atmospheric circulation: the wild card of climate change

14.50

Rosie Eade (Met Office)

Do seasonal to decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?

15.10

Kuniko Yamazaki (Edinburgh)

Tuning HADAM3 using an optimisation method

15.30

Tea/coffee break

16.00

Tamsin Edwards (Bristol)

Probabilistic projections of Antarctic ice sheet instability

16.20

Plenary: Jonathan Tawn (Lancaster)

Multivariate extreme value methods for univariate and spatial flood risk assessment

17.10

Frank Kwasniok (Exeter)

Regime-dependent modelling of extremes in the extra-tropical circulations Decomposition

17.30

Nili Harnik (Tel Aviv)

The influence of the jet stream structure and transitions on extreme weather events in a hierarchy of models and observations

18.00

Drinks reception

19.30

Close

 

Tuesday 15th July 2014

Time

Tuesday

09.00

Plenary: Claudia Tebaldi (Climate Central and NCAR)

Characterising uncertainty through climate model ensembles: open issues with model dependence, performance, and robustness

09.50

Adam Lea (UCL)

How well do ensemble forecasts of European windspeed represent true uncertainty?

10.10

Philip Sansom (Exeter)

Emergent constraints and ensemble discrepancies: putting the pieces together

10.30

Tea/coffee break

11.00

Alan Hewitt (Met Office)

Sources of uncertainty in future projections of the carbon cycle

11.20

Jill Johnson (Leeds)

Exploring uncertainty in a cloud microphysics model

11.40

Leighton Regayre (Leeds)

Aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty in recent decades

12.00

Lindsay Lee (Leeds)

Using sensitivity analysis to quantify the value of observations in reducing model uncertainty

12.20

Discussion

12.30

Lunch

14.00

Plenary: Laure Zanna (Oxford)

An ocean of uncertainties in climate projections

14.50

Phil Browne (Reading)

Mathematical issues when applying a fully nonlinear particle filter to initialise a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model

15.10

Peter Challenor (Exeter)

Towards reconstructing the climate of the recent past from a combination of data and models

15.30

Tea/Coffee

16.00

Chris Smith (Leeds)

The hourly distributions of solar irradiance transmission based on cloud fraction

16.20

Chris Budd (Bath)

Adaptive mesh methods and data assimilation

16.40

Jochen Voss (Leeds)

Map estimators and 4DVAR

17.00

Tom Kent (Leeds)

A modified shallow-water model for investigating convective-scale data assimilation

17.20

Discussion

17.30

Close

 

Wednesday 16th July 2014

Time

Wednesday

09.00

Plenary: Brian Hoskins (Reading and Imperial)

Equatorial waves in the atmosphere

09.50

Peter Watson (Oxford)

The stratospheric wintertime response to applied extratropical torques and its relationship with the annular mode

10.10

Toby Wood (Leeds)

The pseudo-incompressible approximation and Hamilton's principle

10.30

Tea/coffee break

11.00

Plenary: Douglas Maraun (GEOMAR, Kiel)

Challenges in downscaling research

11.50

Alan Gadian (Leeds)

A weather climate change impact study at extreme resolution

12.10

Doug Parker (Leeds)

A model analysis of the relationship between initiation of deep tropical convection and the low-level convergence field

12.30

Céline Guervilly (Leeds)

Formation of large-scale vortices in rotating convection

12.50

Discussion

13.00

Lunch

14.30

Leave campus for trip to York

15.15

Free afternoon in York (optional tours)

18.45

Drinks at National Railway Museum

19.30

Dinner at National Railway Museum

21.30

Leave National Railway Museum

22.00

Arrive back at University of Leeds campus

 

Thursday 17th July 2014

Time

Thursday

09.00

Fenwick Cooper (Oxford)

Optimisation of an idealised ocean model, stochastic parameterisation of sub-grid eddies

9.20

Steve Tobias (Leeds)

Direct statistical simulation of geophysical flows

9.40

Gavin Esler (UCL)

Adaptive Stochastic Trajectory Modelling

10.00

Stuart Barber (Leeds)

A statistical regression framework using localised frequency information

10.20

Tea/coffee break

10.50

Peter Ashwin (Exeter)

The mid-Pleistocene transition as a generic bifurcation on a slow manifold

11.10

Guangzhi Xu (UEA)

Inter-annual variability of Pacific atmosphere moisture divergence: exploring nonlinear behaviour of El Nino events with Self Organizing Maps (SOM)

11.30

Rob Chadwick (Met Office)

What causes uncertainty in future tropical rainfall projections?

11.50

Discussion

12.00

Lunch

13.00

Extreme UK weather session I

  • David Walshaw (Lecturer in Statistics, University of Newcastle)
    --- The statistics of extreme events
  • Brian Hoskins (Professor in Meteorology at the University of Reading, and Chair of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change)
    --- The meteorology shaping extreme weather in the UK
  • Douglas Maraun (Head of Statistical Modelling and Weather Extremes, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel)
    --- Trends in extreme UK precipitation
  • Mark Whitling (joint Environment Agency/DEFRA Flooding and Communities Research Programme)
    --- Flood risk modelling and mapping within the Environment Agency: what, why and how

14.35

Tea/coffee break

14.55

Extreme UK weather session II

  • Ben Gouldby (Technical Director, HR Wallingford)
    --- Coastal aspects of the national flood assessment
  • Wandi Bruine de Bruin (Co-director of the Centre for Decision Research, University of Leeds Business School)
    --- Developing effective communication about extreme weather
  • Virginia Murray (Consultant in Global Disaster Risk Reduction, Public Health England)
    --- Public Health England and extreme events and climate change
  • Panel Discussion

16.30

Coffee and informal discussion

17.30

Close 

 

Friday 18th July 2014

Time

Friday

09.00

Plenary: John Thuburn (Exeter)

Physical fidelity of numerical methods for weather and climate models

09.50

Yamazaki, Hiroe: (Imperial)

Cartesian-grid modelling: an approach for handling of 3D complex topography

10.10

Vladimir Lapin (Leeds)

Accuracy of finite-difference ocean models with staircased boundaries

10.30

Tea/coffee break

11.00

Plenary: Tim Palmer (Oxford)

Greater accuracy with less precision: a new paradigm for weather and climate prediction

11.50

Discussion

12.45

Lunch