CliMathNet workshop: Decision analysis for policy support in climate change adaptation and mitigation

20th - 21st April, Lecture Theatre 6, Laver Building, University of Exeter

Background

Policy makers, from company directors, planners, local authorities, government agencies and even national governments must act in response to climate change. Though a great deal of information exists in the form of output from global and regional climate models, socio-economic models, scenario based forecasts and observational data systems, there remains much interest in how this information should be synthesized and whether it is sufficient for the development of robust policy support tools. Within the climate science community, there has been a lot of research into policy support, with the use of integrated assessment models and the UK climate projections being just two examples. However, there has been very little input from the decision analysis and statistical communities.

This workshop will bring scientists from a broad spectrum of the climate community together with decision makers, policy advisors, and members of the statistical and decision analysis communities to begin research and knowledge transfer. There will be a series of talks from each of the different communities focused on relevant existing tools for decision support, including description of different climate models, products and data as well as general methodology from decision analysis and talks from the user community. These will be followed by breakout sessions designed to encourage ideas for novel multi-disciplinary approaches to the provision of decision support and the development of policy support tools, both within the current constraints of the available models and processes generated for the IPCC cycle (for example, CMIP); and with an eye on more idealized or blue-sky frameworks specifically tailored to the requirements of policy makers.

 

Workshop output

Multi-disciplinary discussions in break out sessions will be designed to foster ideas for 6-month project bids to the RECoVER network funded from April 2015, with a view to developing larger multi-disciplinary research grant applications.

 

Keynote speakers include:

Richard Allan, University of Reading: “The role of CMIP in climate research for policy support”

Chris Hope, University of Cambridge: "Integrated Assessment Models”

Kathryn Humphrey, Climate Change Committee: “The Climate Change Risk Assessment”

Andrew Jarvis, University of Lancaster: "So what do current climate decision frameworks look like from afar?"

Jason Lowe, UK Met Office: “What do policy makers want and how do we advise them”

Dave Sexton, UK Met Office: “The UK Climate projections (UKCP09 and UKCPnext) and their use in decision making"

Jim Smith, University of Warwick: “Introduction to Decision analysis”

 

Registration

Registration has now closed for this event.

 

Agenda

Monday 20th April

10.30

Arrival, Coffee

11.00

Introduction, Danny Williamson, University of Exeter

11.10

Session 1:

Chair: Danny Williamson

Kathryn Humphrey, Climate Change Committee

Jim Smith, University of Warwick

Discussion

12.30

Lunch

13.30

Session 2:

Chair: Peter Challenor

David Sexton, UK Met Office

Richard Allan, University of Reading

Chris Hope, University of Cambridge

Discussion

15.30

Coffee

16.00

Group discussion and planning breakout topics

17.30

End

 

Tuesday 21st April

9.00

Introduction to day 2 and details of breakout groups, Danny Williamson, University of Exeter

9.10

Session 3:

Chair: Jim Smith

Jason Lowe, UK Met Office

Andrew Jarvis, University of Lancaster

Discussion

10.30

Coffee

11.00

Session 4: Contributed talks

Chair: David Stephenson

Richard Metcalfe, Quintessa

Theo Economou, University of Exeter

Erica Thompson, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series

12.30

Lunch

13.30

Parallel breakout session (with working coffee at 14.30)

15.00

Rejoiner and discussion

16.00

End of meeting

 

For further information, please contact Daniel Williamson or Emma Clarke.